Futures Approaching as Polysilicon Prices Continue to Rise: What's Next for the Market? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 19, 2024 14:30

Save

[SMM Analysis: Polysilicon Prices Continue to Rise Ahead of Futures—What’s Next for the Market?] According to SMM data, polysilicon prices, which had been hovering at the bottom for a long time, have recently shown signs of recovery. Starting from December, polysilicon prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. At the end of November, transaction prices for polysilicon remained around 38 yuan/kg. In contrast, as of now, some delivery prices have approached 40 yuan/kg. During the order signing period, several mainstream producers have concentrated their quotations at 42 yuan/kg.

SMM, December 19:

According to SMM data, the long-stagnant polysilicon prices have recently seen a recovery. Starting from December, polysilicon prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. At the end of November, polysilicon transaction prices were maintained at around 38 yuan/kg. As of now, some delivery prices have approached 40 yuan/kg. During the order signing period, several mainstream producers have collectively quoted 42 yuan/kg.

SMM understands that this price increase is mainly driven by mainstream enterprises actively standing firm on quotes. The convening of association meetings has led to effective progress in industry self-discipline, resulting in a certain recovery in market confidence. Polysilicon futures will officially launch on December 26, providing polysilicon producers with more options. Coupled with other factors such as price increases in downstream segments, polysilicon prices have risen.

Currently, polysilicon seller inventories remain at the level of 278,000 mt. Although supply and demand have become tightly balanced in December due to production cuts, considering that inventories have not shown a true supply shortage, the situation remains stable.

Regarding future trends, SMM understands that polysilicon producers exhibit strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes in this round of pricing. Currently, traceable materials and even some high-quality polysilicon are quoted at 44-45 yuan/kg. Combined with the potential for production increases in the silicon wafer segment, the probability of further increases in polysilicon order signing prices is high, with the market showing a high acceptance of the 42 yuan/kg price. However, it is worth noting that the polysilicon price increase still lacks fundamental support from supply and demand. In January and the subsequent months, module demand is expected to remain weak, and prices are likely to lack support during the traditional off-season of January-February.

》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

8 hours ago

[SMM PV] National Energy Administration's June Dispatch Meeting: Cumulative Grid-Connected Wind and Solar Capacity Hits 1.911 Billion kW, Seven Key Tasks Deployed

Currently, driven by China's EVA petrochemical plants actively controlling production to support prices and the rigid continuous procurement from downstream film enterprises, the industry EVA inventory is steadily destocking. The previously high inventory pressure has significantly eased, and the sentiment of low-price sell-off in the market has largely subsided. On the demand side, marginal improvement expectations are emerging. In July, module scheduled production is expected to see a slight rebound, which is likely to drive a recovery in restocking demand for raw materials at film plants. Meanwhile, in July, multiple petrochemical enterprises plan to shut down their PV-grade EVA units for maintenance, leading to market expectations of phased supply contraction. However, the strength of end-use demand recovery remains uncertain. Whether supply tightening can align with the increase in scheduled production to drive EVA prices upward still requires continuous monitoring of spot transactions and the pace of downstream stockpiling.

8 hours ago

[SMM PV] Four Departments: “Three-North” Project Supports Implementing “PV + Desertification Control” Governance Model Based on New Energy Consumption

Notice on the Issuance of the “Management Measures for the ‘Three-North’ Project Construction (Trial)” by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Natural Resources. According to the document, the “Three-North” Project focuses on combating desertification and sandification as its main direction, takes building a robust ecological security barrier in the north as its fundamental goal, and advances strictly in accordance with the principle of “design first, then approval, and construction last.” The document encourages relevant localities, in light of actual conditions and in accordance with relevant national regulations, to explore the implementation of “work-relief,” “rewards as subsidies,” and other measures. It supports the development of governance models such as “PV + sand control” built on ensuring the consumption of new energy and “road-based sand control.” It guides enterprises, collectives, farmers, and herders to participate in project construction through means such as contracting, shareholding, leasing, and labor contribution.

8 hours ago

[SMM PV] Dongying City, Shandong Further Strengthens Safety Supervision of Distributed PV

On June 17, the Dongying Municipal People's Government of Shandong Province issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Safety Supervision of Distributed PV. The notice pointed out that the flooding season has arrived, and severe weather such as high temperatures, thunderstorms, and strong winds is frequent, increasing the risks of accidents like fires and falls for various types of distributed PV. Departments at all levels and relevant units must learn profound lessons from related accidents, and in conjunction with the ongoing major inspection and rectification of safety production hazards, further strengthen safety supervision of distributed PV, implement detailed safety prevention responsibilities, and resolutely prevent all types of accidents. The notice requires county and district government departments and units to conduct comprehensive inspections and rectifications, implement meticulous safety control measures; at the same time, strengthen publicity and education to enhance safety awareness.

8 hours ago