Futures Approaching as Polysilicon Prices Continue to Rise: What's Next for the Market? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 19, 2024 14:30

Save

[SMM Analysis: Polysilicon Prices Continue to Rise Ahead of Futures—What’s Next for the Market?] According to SMM data, polysilicon prices, which had been hovering at the bottom for a long time, have recently shown signs of recovery. Starting from December, polysilicon prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. At the end of November, transaction prices for polysilicon remained around 38 yuan/kg. In contrast, as of now, some delivery prices have approached 40 yuan/kg. During the order signing period, several mainstream producers have concentrated their quotations at 42 yuan/kg.

SMM, December 19:

According to SMM data, the long-stagnant polysilicon prices have recently seen a recovery. Starting from December, polysilicon prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. At the end of November, polysilicon transaction prices were maintained at around 38 yuan/kg. As of now, some delivery prices have approached 40 yuan/kg. During the order signing period, several mainstream producers have collectively quoted 42 yuan/kg.

SMM understands that this price increase is mainly driven by mainstream enterprises actively standing firm on quotes. The convening of association meetings has led to effective progress in industry self-discipline, resulting in a certain recovery in market confidence. Polysilicon futures will officially launch on December 26, providing polysilicon producers with more options. Coupled with other factors such as price increases in downstream segments, polysilicon prices have risen.

Currently, polysilicon seller inventories remain at the level of 278,000 mt. Although supply and demand have become tightly balanced in December due to production cuts, considering that inventories have not shown a true supply shortage, the situation remains stable.

Regarding future trends, SMM understands that polysilicon producers exhibit strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes in this round of pricing. Currently, traceable materials and even some high-quality polysilicon are quoted at 44-45 yuan/kg. Combined with the potential for production increases in the silicon wafer segment, the probability of further increases in polysilicon order signing prices is high, with the market showing a high acceptance of the 42 yuan/kg price. However, it is worth noting that the polysilicon price increase still lacks fundamental support from supply and demand. In January and the subsequent months, module demand is expected to remain weak, and prices are likely to lack support during the traditional off-season of January-February.

》View the SMM PV Industry Chain Database

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

6 hours ago

[SMM PV News]

The PV-grade EVA market continued its upward trend this week. As of now, mainstream quotations from traders have approached 10,500 yuan/mt, and available spot supply in the market is tight. It is expected that next week, the weekly settlement price from major petrochemical plants may reach above 10,000 yuan.

6 hours ago

[SMM PV Flash] Sichuan's H1 PV equipment and components manufacturing up 7.6% YoY

On July 22, a reporter learned from the Sichuan Provincial Tax Service of the State Taxation Administration that from January to June 2026, Sichuan Province's invoiced sales revenue maintained YoY growth, the industrial economy played an important supporting role in the province's economic growth, and the trend of manufacturing structure optimization and upgrading was evident. Data provided by the Sichuan Provincial Tax Service showed that from January to June, the province's industrial invoiced sales revenue rose 6.9% YoY. By sector, manufacturing was up 7.6% YoY, mining was up 1.7% YoY, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply was up 4.1% YoY. Equipment manufacturing continued to develop. Its invoiced sales revenue from January to June accounted for 50.0% of the province's manufacturing total, up 5.8% YoY. Within this sector, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing was up 7.1% YoY; the manufacturing of railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment, instrumentation manufacturing, and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing rose 47.1%, 13.6%, and 11.9% YoY, respectively. Clean energy equipment manufacturing, a key focus in Sichuan, grew 7.3% YoY, within which the manufacturing of PV equipment and components rose 7.6% YoY. Lithium-ion battery manufacturing increased 22.5% YoY, driving upstream basic chemical raw material manufacturing up 63.7% YoY. Deep-sea oil drilling equipment manufacturing surged 160.0% YoY.

6 hours ago

[SMM PV Express] Annual carbon reduction exceeds 23,000 mt! Beihai Shipbuilding distributed PV project completed and put into operation

On the 22nd, all construction of the Beihai Shipbuilding "Blue Sail Project" distributed PV project was completed, successfully achieving full-capacity grid-connected power generation. This represents the grid connection and commissioning of another large PV power station for the enterprise, following the successful grid connection of the PV power station in Zone 2 of Beihai Shipbuilding in May this year, marking the full completion and operation of the project.

6 hours ago